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RIEF論文:Reassessing the safety of nuclear power (S. Wheatley et al.,)

2016-04-18 17:32:16



 We summarize the results of a recent statistical analysis of 216 nuclear energy accidents and incidents (events). The dataset is twice as large as the previous best available. We employ cost in US dollars as a severity measure to facilitate the comparison of different types and sizes of events, a method more complete and consistent that the industry-standard approach.

  Despite significant reforms following past disasters, we estimate that, with 388 reactors in operation, there is a 50% chance that a Fukushima event (or more costly) occurs every 60–150 years. We also find that the average cost of events per year is around the cost of the construction of a new plant.

 This dire outlook necessitates post-Fukushima reforms that will truly minimize extreme nuclear power risks. Nuclear power accidents are decreasing in frequency, but increasing in severity.




スイス・チューリッヒ工科大学のSpencer Wheatley教授、 Didier Sornette教授、デンマーク・オーフツ大学のBenjamin K. Sovacool教授による共同執筆。



 論文は「Reassesing the safety of nuclear power」で、「Energy Research & Social Science」の最新号に掲載された。論文は、これまで世界中で発生した216の原発事故を対象として統計的分析を行った。その結果、原発事故発生の頻度は1986年のチェルノブイリ原発事故後、顕著に下がっているとしている。